Sonoma Valley Market Update - Looking ahead to 2021

Well...we made it. Hopefully you, your family, friends, colleagues, and acquaintances came through the past year if not happy and healthy…at least healthy. It was a trying year in so many ways and we are all looking forward to a better 2021. As we’ve observed in many of our reports over the past 10 or so months, we have been surprised by the velocity and even the veracity

of the activity in the market. Certainly, back in March when ‘stay-at-home’ became a thing who would have thought that we would look back at almost 10 months of record-breaking sales in real estate. There is no doubt that home and (maybe more specifically) location became incredibly important.


So, let’s look first at December’s numbers, on how 2020 shaped up and, if possible, we will try and make our best guess as to how 2021 will unfold. While the median price of active listings in December continued to outpace 2019 by almost 23% from 1,299,000 last year to $1,595,000 this year, the number of listings available was still below the 2019 figures from 135 to 125, only a little over 7% reduction. December is traditionally a light month for listing activity and this year was no different. Looking at the number of pending and closed sales in December we see that both were up over the same period last year by over 35. The median price of the closed sales was up, but not by the same large margin...actually only about 9% from $825,352 in 2019 to $900,000 in 2020. Finally, the “days on market” dropped from 90 to 47 days December ’19 vs. December ’20 and continues to reflect the strong demand and the indication of a sellers’ market.

2020 & LOOKING AHEAD TO 2021

The annual numbers do tell a similar story with the number of listings declining by approximately 10% and the number of sales increasing by just over 21% year over year. Prices, too, reflected the interest in the market with a median increase overall of approximately 6.5%. However, the median price from April through December reflected an even higher increase at just over 11%. Looking ahead to 2021, we see several factors that will continue to support a strong real estate market. Interest rates are expected to remain extremely low – in the 3% to 3.5% range; the anticipation of a much stronger stimulus package after the inauguration which should fuel job growth especially in the transportation and service industries; and of course, the real “shot in the arm” as the vaccine is delivered to millions by mid-summer. Looking and back and looking ahead, it has never been more evident as to what HOME means. We are so very lucky to live in such a wonderful place and owning a home here may be the greatest luxury of all.

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